安然

基本信息

Enron Corporation,曾是美国最大的能源交易公司,2001 年因表外负债与会计欺诈崩塌,破产前股价超过 90 美元。安然事件是美国现代会计史的标志性案例。

德鲁肯米勒的核心观点

一笔成功的做空

Druckenmiller 在 2013 年 TEDxWallStreet 演讲中谈到 Duquesne 30 年从无亏损年时,特意提了一句”我们做空了 Enron”——把 Enron 列入”提前看见不可持续局面”的胜利样本。安然属于 Druckenmiller 那条主线:“我擅长的就是分析不可持续的局面。“

表外负债的隐喻

更重要的是,Druckenmiller 一直把 Enron 当作 叙事工具:他用 Enron(以及房利美/房地美)类比美国政府对社保和医保的”表外承诺”。“如果你按 GAAP 会计把这些承诺放上资产负债表——除了 Enron 这种例外——美债就不是 17 万亿,而是 205 万亿。” Enron 是他论证”代际公平”的重要类比。

原文引用

Stanley Druckenmiller - Fed robbing poor to pay rich (2013-09-19)

“If you took those debts and put them on the government balance sheet … If you did the accounting that they do for any company in America — except maybe Enron, and Fannie and Freddie a few years ago — the debt today is not $17 trillion. It’s $205 trillion.”

来源:Stanley Druckenmiller - Fed robbing poor to pay rich

No Free Lunches - Seniors Benefit at the Expense of Our Kids - Stan Druckenmiller at TEDxWallStreet (2013-11-26)

“How did we do it? Very simple: while others were focusing on the present, we looked and focused on the future — specifically on analyzing unsustainable situations. … and yes, we were short Enron.”

“Financial history seems littered with stories of pernicious behavior that lasted much longer than it otherwise would have when liabilities are hidden off the balance sheet. The most recent examples: in corporate terms, Enron; in government terms, Fannie and Freddie.”

来源:No Free Lunches - Seniors Benefit at the Expense of Our Kids - Stan Druckenmiller at TEDxWallStreet


首次出现:Stanley Druckenmiller - Fed robbing poor to pay rich