生产力错配与通胀
基本信息
Druckenmiller 在 2019 年成熟化的一条宏观主张：我们正处于自 1800 年代末以来最大的生产力革命，但官方 GDP 与通胀统计完全无法捕捉它——大量价值已经免费提供。这成为他批评美联储 2% 通胀目标的实证基础。
德鲁肯米勒的核心观点
”拍照”作为标志性举证
2019 年 6 月经济俱乐部：“2010 年全球拍 3000 亿张照片。去年（2018）拍了 2.5 万亿张——比有史以来人类拍的总和还多。边际成本为零，质量比 10 年前最好的相机还好。在 GDP 会计里，因为你不再付 50 美分洗胶卷——它实际上 从 GDP 里减掉了。“
MIT 研究：消费者愿意付 18,000 美元/年用 Google 搜索
“MIT 一个研究，普通美国人愿意每年付 18,000 美元用 Google 搜索；3,500 美元用 Google Maps。我会付得更多。这些东西全是免费的——所以根本没法测量。“
YouTube 60 天内容 > 整个电视产业 60 年
“YouTube 过去 60 天上传的原创内容超过整个电视产业 60 年的总和。每天 35 亿次 Google 搜索。我们陷在那里争论 1.4、1.6、1.7——我们根本不知道这些数字是多少。“
政策含义：1.7% 不是问题——是了不起的成功
“美联储的双重使命是价格稳定与充分就业。我住在这个国家。1.7% 的通胀如果不是’价格稳定的伟大成功’，我不知道什么是。把它从 1.7 拉到 2 当作’我们这代人的最大挑战’——尤其当我们都不知道它是 1 还是 3 的时候——简直令人震惊。“
历史先例：1800 年代末
“上一次大科技革命是 19 世纪末——3% 通缩，10 年里实质增速 8%。” 他把这作为”由供给侧驱动的通缩是好通缩”的关键反例。
医保 19% 反例
2019 年 12 月：他给联储一个假设性挑战。“如果用云计算把医保从 19% GDP 压到 13%——CPI 会被压到零下。这是不是’我们这一代的最大危机’？不，这是我们应该庆祝的事。“
联储的”零下界”误读
“他们把零下界本身当通缩的原因。我没找到任何一次通缩是从 接近零利率 开始的——每一次都是 资产泡沫 之后。所以如果你想造通缩，就照他们 2012 到几年前做的那样去做。“
与 QE 的因果链
他的核心政策叙事：“你不需要 QE 来对抗 科技驱动的低通胀——你的低通胀本来就是好通胀。但你做 QE，就把所有人推到风险曲线外，造成资产泡沫——而 资产泡沫破裂才是真通缩。“
原文引用
Stanley Druckenmiller Interview - The Economic Club of New York (2019-06-03)
“Three and a half billion searches a day on Google, YouTube in the last 60 days has had more content uploaded on it, original content, than the entire television industry has done in the last 60 years. In 2010, we took 300 billion pictures. Last year we took 2.5 trillion pictures. We took more pictures last year than since the beginning of civilization. The marginal cost of those pictures is zero. … in GDP accounting, since you’re not paying $.50 to go and get your Kodak film processed, it actually subtracts from GDP accounting.”
“We don’t know what these numbers are. We don’t know what GDP growth is. We don’t know what inflation is. And we are in a productivity boom, so I’m not convinced that minus 1 or minus 2% deflation wouldn’t be bad.”
来源：Stanley Druckenmiller Interview - The Economic Club of New York
Billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller’s full CNBC appearance (2019-06-07)
“We’re probably already in deflation. By the way, that’s a good thing — we have good deflation and bad deflation. … In the late 1800s, during the industrial revolution, we had 3% deflation and we were growing at 8% real.”
“We’ve never had deflation that I can find that started because we were near the zero bound. We’ve had deflation in every instance because there was an asset bubble. So if I were trying to create deflation … I would have done exactly what the Fed did from 2012 until a couple of years ago.”
来源：Billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller’s full CNBC appearance
Druckenmiller on 2020 Outlook, Monetary Policy, U.S. Election (2019-12-18)
“There is no mandate for 2%. The mandate states very clearly: price stability and full employment. … I don’t know how 1.7% is not the greatest success ever if we’re talking about price stability.”
“What if you ‘Amazon’ the whole medical system, and drove the cost of healthcare down from 19% to 13%? Would the Fed then panic because it sends the CPI under zero? Is this some horrible thing — the greatest crisis of our time? No.”
来源：Druckenmiller on 2020 Outlook, Monetary Policy, U.S. Election
首次出现：Stanley Druckenmiller Interview - The Economic Club of New York