腾讯
基本信息
Tencent Holdings，中国互联网平台公司，旗下 WeChat 是 Druckenmiller 口中”地球上最好的平台”。业务横跨支付、流媒体、云、游戏。Druckenmiller 在 2017 年明确持有腾讯多头。
德鲁肯米勒的核心观点
WeChat 是地球上最好的平台
2017 年 12 月：腾讯有支付、自有版”Netflix”、自有云、游戏。“WeChat 大概是整个地球上最好的平台。” 他注意到的核心点是腾讯的护城河横跨多个独立业务——任意单业务都可单独成立。
“故意低盈利”——AWS 模型的中国版
他直接用 Amazon-AWS 类比腾讯-游戏：“Amazon 用 AWS 给所有其它投入回血；腾讯用游戏的现金流给所有其它业务回血。” 都属于他偏爱的”主营业务支撑长期投资”模式。
估值——市盈率 ≈ 增速倍数
“我觉得它大概 40 倍 PE，而它至少能以 40% 增长——所以是 1 倍 PEG。我还很喜欢。” 这条简单的”PEG ≈ 1”是他公开为腾讯估值给出的少数明确锚点。
2018 年游戏整顿——拖累整组的代价
2018 年 9 月：腾讯游戏遭遇监管”空气槽”，让他这一年付出代价。“中国互联网过去 2-3 年对我非常好——今年基本上是个灾难。Tencent 游戏出问题，把整组拖累。” 其它中国互联网公司基本面都没问题（阿里盈利依然超预期），但仍被定价模型砸下来。
中国”和政府合作”的护城河——他坚持的反向判断
他重申 Sun Valley 演讲的争议判断：“我说过中国互联网公司比美国互联网公司面临的政府监管风险 更小——因为它们和政府是合作关系。互联网是共产党梦寐以求的朋友。” 即使 2018 年游戏受挫，他认为这是周期性而非结构性。
2019 年：贸易战让中国转向呵护腾讯
2019 年 6 月 CNBC：“过去一年中国对私营部门相当严厉——但贸易战一开始，他们立刻转向：减少对腾讯的限制，给阿里和华为加油。他们正在培育未来 30-40 年与我们竞争的公司。” 腾讯重新成为他长期组合的核心持仓。
立场反转：避开既有巨头，转向新兴挑战者
2021-06-24：在习近平监管收紧后，他撤回对腾讯/阿里这类既有巨头的多头判断。“在中国，只有一个垄断者有立身之地，那就是政府。如果你达到了阿里巴巴或腾讯的体量，他就会来榨取你的利润——不仅如此，他还会确保你在影响力和形象上不会超越他。” 他依然看好中国新兴公司机会，但表示”自上而下地看中国正变得越来越困难，因为习近平已经充分证明了自己是一个真正的毛主义者”——把腾讯从”地球上最好的平台”重新定位为”已被政府盯上的成熟巨头”。
原文引用
Legendary Investor Stanley Druckenmiller On The Stock Market, Tax Reform, And His Stock Picks - CNBC (2017-12-14)
“I really like Tencent. I really like their position. They’re in payments; they’ve got their own version of Netflix; they’ve got their own version of cloud. WeChat is probably the best platform on the entire planet. And then they have a gaming business.”
“If you look at Amazon, AWS is basically funding all the investments they’re making in other areas. With Tencent, their games are funding everything else. So I own Tencent. … like Amazon, Tencent is intentionally under-earning, and the long-term growth looks incredible. I think it’s 40 times earnings, and they’re going to grow at least 40 percent — so it’s one times the growth rate. I still like it.”
来源：Legendary Investor Stanley Druckenmiller On The Stock Market, Tax Reform, And His Stock Picks - CNBC
Stanley F. Druckenmiller - Monetary Policy & Markets (2018-09-06)
“The Chinese internets, which were very, very good to me the last two or three years, have been pretty much a disaster this year. … at least on the gaming side with Tencent, I’ve been dead wrong, and it’s dragged that whole group down.”
“I thought that the Chinese internets were at less risk of government regulation than the U.S. internet … they’re partnering with the government — they have all this information that they hand over to the government. The internet has been the greatest friend the Communist Party could ever imagine.”
来源：Stanley F. Druckenmiller - Monetary Policy & Markets
Stanley Druckenmiller Interview - The Economic Club of New York (2019-06-03)
“Maybe I’m an idiot but I own Alibaba and Tencent … My portfolio has basically been long disrupters and short disrupted for like three or four years now. Those companies, their growth rates I see are not going to be that messed up by us.”
来源：Stanley Druckenmiller Interview - The Economic Club of New York
Billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller’s full CNBC appearance (2019-06-07)
“About a year ago, China had gotten quite tough with their own private sector. And then the minute the trade stuff happened, they pivoted. They got rid of Jack Ma and then became very friendly to Alibaba. They started reducing restrictions on everything Tencent does. … they’re nurturing the companies that are going to compete with us in the next 30 to 40 years.”
来源：Billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller’s full CNBC appearance
鲍登学院捐赠基金 - 与葆拉·沃伦特和斯坦·德鲁肯米勒的对话 (2021-06-24)
“正如我的合伙人说得最准确：在中国，只有一个垄断者有立身之地，那就是政府。如果你达到了阿里巴巴或腾讯的体量，他就会来榨取你的利润——不仅如此，他还会确保你在影响力和形象上不会超越他。”
“我不想持有那些既有的巨头，但我确实想持有那些新兴的挑战者……自上而下地看中国正变得越来越困难，因为习近平已经充分证明了自己是一个真正的毛主义者。”
来源：鲍登学院捐赠基金 - 与葆拉·沃伦特和斯坦·德鲁肯米勒的对话
首次出现：Legendary Investor Stanley Druckenmiller On The Stock Market, Tax Reform, And His Stock Picks - CNBC